Tottenham eased some of their Wembley concerns as they cruised to a morale-boosting 5-1 demolition of Stoke at the weekend. But with minds now potentially pre-occupied by the blockbuster clash against runaway leaders Manchester City in a few days time, there’s value in them reverting to type with a low-scoring encounter against a well-marshalled Brighton side.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men might be out of the title race - they trail City by 16 points with 16 games played - but we shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the trip to the Etihad as a chance to re-ignite their Premier League campaign and remind everyone of their quality. But a stellar performance in Manchester won’t happen if they over-extend themselves here.
That’s not to say Spurs aren’t capable of posting a routine victory without going through the gears but Brighton are one of the more disciplined teams in the division, retaining both possession and defensive shape better than most. Trips to Arsenal and Manchester United have both finished with under 2.5 goals, as did the opening day defeat by Pep Guardiola’s men.
And it’s perhaps revealing that Chris Hughton warned his players about the perils of being distracted by this trip to Wembley ahead of the 2-0 defeat at Huddersfield on Saturday, before then encouraging his players to embrace the sense of occasion at the national stadium in the aftermath. Like so many others, this isn’t just any other game for the Sussex outfit.
Tottenham might have taken out some of their frustration on the Potters but fellow also-rans Burnley (1-1), Swansea (0-0), Bournemouth (0-1), Crystal Palace (0-1) and West Brom (1-1) have all kept the scores respectable on their red-latter date at the showpiece venue. That’s an aggregate of 4-2 in Spurs’ favour, compared with 16-2 against the same opposition last term.
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The Seagulls have gone off the boil since they served up their best display of the season at Old Trafford. A goalless draw with arch-rivals Crystal Palace followed and they have now clocked three-and-a-half hours without a goal from open play in the wake of humbling defeats by Liverpool and the Terriers, so they might not be harbouring the most vivid of attacking ideas.
But those last two setbacks can be put into a curious perspective. The close relationship between Jurgen Klopp and David Wagner is no secret, so it would be naive to think they haven’t shared information on the Seagulls, given the prior experience Wagner already had of preparing for games against Hughton and his fairly rigid 4-4-2 philosophy.
Liverpool were rampant 5-1 winners at the Amex the weekend before last, breaking the mould of Albion’s previous encounters against top-six opposition, and then Huddersfield subsequently ended a four-match losing streak with a couple of set-plays for which the Brighton defending was uncharacteristically sloppy. A vast improvement in concentration should be expected.
The centre-back pairing of Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy is one of the most dominant in the division and isn’t likely to be pulled around easily by the dovetailing of the Spurs forward line. Dunk, in particular, could be especially keen to make amends on this stage after delivering his worst individual performance of the season in front of Gareth Southgate four days ago.
Tottenham ought to win and Brighton might have to weather a storm in the opening 45 minutes. Pochettino reportedly called a team meeting on Thursday, specifically to stress the importance of how they start games at Wembley, which was immediately followed by only their second interval lead at home this term, courtesy of an own goal by Ryan Shawcross.
But even if an early lead is established, don’t be overly shocked if the remainder of the contest is decidedly low-key as the visitors prioritise the wish to avoid a hiding and the hosts keep something back for a much more illustrious contest that could be a defining moment in their revised mission to chase home the champions-in-waiting for the third season running.
Recommended bet:
Tottenham v Brighton under 2.5 goals at 7/5
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