The very concept of a World Cup ‘group of death’ is probably antiquated.
Recent trends have widened gaps between club sides – and closed them between many of the planet’s national teams too. The best players from all across the globe congregate on European football and pick up top-class experience. So when, as in Brazil 2014, Italy, Uruguay and England are all drawn in the same group, the presence of three former champions gets the rhetoric flying. But the side from that group which made most progress was unfancied Costa Rica, who came, it was thought, to make up the numbers and ended up reaching the quarter-finals.
Some groups, though, are more difficult than others – and Argentina have cause to regret the group they have been drawn into for next year’s tournament in Russia. Last week coach Jorge Sampaoli stressed that he was far more concerned with the ‘who’ than with the ‘where.’ He did not mind if Argentina had to take long trips across Russia as long as the opponents were relatively easy. He did not get his wish.
Argentina kick-off in Moscow – where they will be based during the tournament – before making a short journey to nearby Nizhny Novgorod and then heading north to Saint Petersburg. And there will not be a lot of travelling to be done in the knockout stage – providing they qualify.
And that looks like a fair sized ‘if’ now that Argentina have been drawn against dangerous and euphoric debutants Iceland, Croatia and their crafty midfield, and Nigeria, possibly the best of the African contingent.
A meeting with Nigeria in Russia last month exposed the weakness of the Argentina side. This column last dealt with Sampaoli’s Argentina a couple of days ahead of that game, just after the team had recorded a morale boosting 1-0 win away to Russia. But the side’s defensive problems were noted – and were then thoroughly exploited by the Nigerians.
Admittedly, Argentina were without Lionel Messi. Even so, they went into a 2-0 lead, which could even have been doubled. But the longer the game went on, the more vulnerable Argentina became. There were three problems, which can be lined up like dominoes, because one has an impact on the other.
Sampaoli’s standard game plan is an aggressive high press, squeezing the opposition in their half of the field, looking to create two-against-one situations down the flanks. His first problem is a midfield that does not press. This leaves a slow defensive line exposed. Sampaoli’s back three drop ever deeper so that the lack of pace does not become a problem – given that the hole behind a defender is always more of a threat than the hole in front.
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This in turn highlights problem number three – the lack of suitable candidates to fill the full-back – or, in this system, wing-back – positions. Argentina have nothing like the Brazilian tradition of attacking full-backs, and the cupboard is currently looking bare. So Sampaoli has been using wingers in these positions – in the recent friendlies Angel Di Maria played on the left flank, and both Eduardo Salvio and Cristian Pavon on the right. These are all attacking players. It is asking a great deal to force them to keep running back 80 metres and defend at the end of it.
Nigeria took full advantage of all of these defects and ended up winning 4-2. The next time they meet, in the final round of group games on June 26, the stakes will be much higher.
One of two paths are open to Sampaoli. He can stay on the current course, hoping that time on the training ground will enable him to patch up the team’s defects. Or he could conclude that he does not have the players to carry out his favourite scheme. But there is little time available to start from scratch. Argentina’s structural problems, then, may well remain.
But if that is a constant, there is also a vital unknown part of the equation. Come the big day, how much individual brilliance will Argentina be able to call on?
That might seem like a silly question given the extraordinary depth of attacking talent available to Argentina’s coach. But the effect of the end of the European season must be factored in. How much gas will Messi and company have in the tank come the end of the club campaign?
Four years ago Argentina qualified for the last World Cup with a thrilling 4-3-3 system. They were very open defensively – then-coach Alejandro Sabella commented that there were times his side was under attack and the only thing he could do was shut his eyes and pray. But with Messi, Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero and Di Maria all firing together, his side would come out on top of any tit-for-tat battle.
Come the tournament, though, the odds had changed. The stars were simply not fresh enough to play that way. Sabella was forced to change tack. Argentina fought their way to the final with a combination of grit and occasional flashes of brilliance from Messi, who was clearly rationing himself to play in bursts.
Should the same circumstances apply in Russia and Argentina’s attacking stars be well short of their best, then Sampaoli’s side would not seem to be built for a similar type of defensive grit. Of all the major powers, the draw would appear to have left them in the most vulnerable position.
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