Atletico Madrid have won many admirers and plaudits with their performances in the knockout stage of Europe’s principal continental club competition this year. After overcoming PSV Eindhoven in the round of 16 thanks to a penalty shoot-out, Atleti went on to defeat defending European champions Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals and tournament favourites Bayern Munich on away goals in the last four.
Although they won La Liga in the same season they reached the Champions League final two years ago, there is a strong argument that Atletico are in a better position to claim the European crown this term. They remain extremely strong defensively – their backline was breached on only 18 occasions in 38 Spanish top flight encounters – but also seem to have greater potency up top, with players such as Koke, Saul Niguez and Antoine Griezmann all capable of producing moments of magic in attack.
Real Madrid’s progression to the final looks to have been rather easier on paper, but Zinedine Zidane’s side made hard work of overcoming Roma in the first knockout round, Wolfsburg in the last eight and Manchester City in the semi-finals. It is worth remembering that Los Blancos are in excellent form, however: Real Madrid ended the La Liga campaign with 12 consecutive wins, with Barcelona ultimately winning the Spanish title by a single point after leading by 12 as recently as March.
Madrid have lost only once since a 1-0 reverse against Atletico in February, with key man Cristiano Ronaldo much improved in recent months after some relatively lacklustre showings in the first half of the season. The Portuguese, Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema makes for a fearsome front three, but doubts remain about Madrid’s defensive capabilities and their ability to shut down games when ahead; it is notable, indeed, that Zidane’s men kept only five clean sheets in their final 16 league encounters, despite picking up all three points on 14 occasions.
This year’s Champions League final is a tough one to call. The fact that it is a local derby could make it a scrappy, hard-fought and physical affair, with both teams unlikely to give an inch and a large number of goals unlikely. Taking everything into account, it is probably worth backing Atletico Madrid to triumph by a narrow margin, with Simeone’s side’s defensive solidity a major strength that should help them blunt Real Madrid’s vast array of attacking weapons.
In terms of potential goalscorers, Griezmann looks like a good bet, while central defender Diego Godin could be a decent outside option – the Uruguay international was the man who put Atletico 1-0 up with a header from a set-piece in 2014. Under 2.5 goals to be scored is a wager that is worth exploring, while tempting yellow card choices are Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Godin, Filipe Luis and Fernando Torres.
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