Many have tipped the Belgians to go all the way this summer, with the bookmakers rating them as the fifth favourites – behind France, Spain, Germany and England – to get their hands on the trophy on 10 July. Theirs is an extremely talented squad full of top-class players, including Thibaut Courtois between the sticks, Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen in the heart of the backline, Radja Nainggolan and Mousa Dembele in the centre of midfield and Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Yannick Ferreira Carrasco and Romelu Lukaku in attacking areas.
Belgium’s principal problem at the World Cup in Brazil two years ago was a failure to fashion a collective that was at least equal to the sum of its individual parts. Although Wilmots’ side only narrowly lost to eventual runners-up Argentina in the quarter-final, there was a sense that they never really lived up to the promise that surrounded them, with their four previous victories all coming by a single goal-margin. Doubts were also aired about manager Wilmots’ tactical nous and decision-making, which could put the former striker under pressure if Belgium experience a wobble at any point in the next few weeks.
Despite reaching the final of Euro 2012 and possessing an excellent tournament pedigree throughout their history, not much is expected of Italy this summer. In Juventus quartet Gianluigi Buffon, Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli they have one of the best defensive units in the competition, but there is not too much to get excited about further forward: Marco Verratti and Claudio Marchisio are huge losses in the centre of midfield, while a pool of strikers that features Simone Zaza, Ciro Immobile, Eder and Graziano Pelle is unlikely to leave opposition defenders quaking in their boots.
Italy are often at their best when written off and forced to assume the role of underdogs, though, which could suit them in a tournament where most people are looking elsewhere when it comes to predicting a winner. Antonio Conte will have his charges extremely well organised and well drilled, particularly off the ball, and the Azzurri will be hard-working and disciplined even if they may lack the quality that would usually be expected of an Italian side.
Taking everything into account, it is worth backing a Belgium triumph on Monday night. Italy will be resolute and tough to break down but, in the likes of Hazard and De Bruyne, the Red Devils should have enough creativity and invention to prise open Conte’s men’s backline.
This could be a low-scoring encounter – under 2.5 goals is a wager that is worth exploring – in which the first strike may not come until after half-time. Lukaku is a good choice to grab the opening goal of the game, meanwhile, after the Everton frontman found the back of the net in all three of Belgium’s warm up friendlies against Switzerland, Finland and Norway.
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