Watford bagged their first point under Javi Gracia with a boring 0-0 against Stoke in midweek. The ball was in play for just 42 minutes at the Bet365 Stadium - setting a new Premier League record this season - and Gracia was unapologetic in his post-match press conference, giving us a pretty clear indication of how he intends to get the Hornets back on track.
Indeed, the first words out of his mouth heralded the fact that this was Watford’s first clean sheet in 12 league outings. At the other end of the pitch, the emphasis wasn’t on creating more but being more clinical around the box, when an expected goals make-up of 0.74 against the Potters would suggest there was very little to be clinical with.
To those who still harbour impressions of Watford’s marauding forward play between August and November, when they netted at least two goals in 11 of their opening 14 matches, this back-to-basics approach might be regarded a shame. There’s no shortage of attacking threat at Gracia’s disposal with which to fashion an ebullient charge towards safety.
However, the tide had turned once Marco Silva’s head had been turned by Everton. Coincidence or catalyst, the balance shifted from Watford could do to what they couldn’t. Commanding leads surrendered in successive away games at Chelsea (2-4) and Everton (2-3) had given away vital clues that would be exposed with regularity once those overtures arrived from Goodison.
In the week that Sam Allardyce was eventually appointed, Watford embarked on a run of 11 matches that yielded only five points. And once you find yourself on that slippery slope, changing the style of play is the most natural way for any new manager to respond. The more radical ideas you introduce, the more you differentiate yourself from last guy and his results.
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Gracia’s reputation as a coach who can frustrate the big clubs precedes him. In three seasons as a top-flight manager in Spain, with Osasuna and Malaga, he tasted defeat just twice in nine home games against the top three, beating Atletico Madrid in their title-winning season and famously landing odds of 33/1 to overcome Barcelona 1-0 at the Camp Nou.
Sebastian Prodl, speaking after the Stoke game, made it abundantly clear that the dressing room is conscious of these past achievements. They believe they are in capable hands. Sometimes, players might not like being asked to do jobs that limit their freedom of expression, but for Gracia it sounds like there’s a high degree of buy-in.
As such, we should probably brace ourselves for another turgid affair when Chelsea rock up at Vicarage Road with memories of Watford’s late collapse in the reverse fixture still relatively fresh. Antonio Conte’s men were woeful that day, but scored three times in the final 20 minutes following the introduction of Willian from the bench.
The Blues make the short trip to Hertfordshire wounded by their collapse at home to Bournemouth in midweek. They back three were caught cold, like the proverbial rabbits in car headlights, as the Cherries’ fluid front three plundered three goals in 16 minutes after the break. The temptation for Conte might also be to solidify rather than double-down on his creative outlets.
Therefore, it’s hard to look beyond low-scoring game here. In Gracia’s final season at Malaga, he finished eighth and the 14 games against the teams who finished above him produced a grand total of just 16 goals. The under 2.5 bet obliged in 12 out of 14, while the under 1.5 bet copped in 10 out of 14.
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