In a week when Real Madrid and Juventus have reminded us all about the important role history plays in crunch matches where old and emerging heavyweights collide, it feels odd that performance data should be the dominant factor in the prices at Old Trafford this weekend.
The market cannot separate Manchester United and Liverpool, even though the hosts currently lead the visitors by two points in the Premier League table - a starting position that Jose Mourinho will relish - and they will be roared on by 95 per cent of 75,000 capacity crowd.
For all of the misgivings about United under Louis van Gaal and Mourinho over the past four seasons, neighbours Manchester City are the only top-six team to have triumphed in their backyard during that period. Against the other four, the Red Devils boast nine wins and five draws from 14 matches.
So how much does it really matter that Liverpool come into this clash in better form, and playing better football? Expected goals ratios might imply that the Merseysiders are a decent bet to finish above the Mancunians come the end of the campaign, but the sample data bears questionable relevance to this occasion.
In their three away games against top-six opposition to date, Jurgen Klopp's men have crumbled every time, shipping five goals at City, four at Tottenham and three at Arsenal. And let's not forget that alarming second-half collapse in Seville. In each instance, composure was lost and irreparable damage was done in wayward 10- or 15-minute spells.
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| User |
Total tips |
Profit | 1 | Yield | Expected prize |
Gambler420
|
115
|
376659 | 2 |
+14.93%
|
500 EUR |
Betting_machine
|
99
|
315482 | 3 |
+20.45%
|
250 EUR |
mookerdfred
|
59
|
169873 | 4 |
+17.39%
|
125 EUR |
|
Michael
|
40
|
147780 | 5 |
+33.78%
|
75 EUR |
LuckyZara
|
145
|
25303 | 6 |
+3.72%
|
50 EUR |
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For all the global appeal that surrounds this fixture, the action itself is seldom a treat for the purist. The meetings between Mourinho and Klopp have been particularly dour, accounting for three of the five stalemates that have been played out over the past decade (25 matches).
Of the remaining 20, no fewer than 15 have been won by the home team - nine at Old Trafford, six at Anfield - and that's arguably the most compelling statistic of all when you consider that United can be backed on the level-ball Asian handicap (or draw no bet) at a fraction below even money.
As disjointed as United have looked in recent weeks, this is likely to be a game played on Mourinho's terms rather than Klopp's. The German clearly attaches more weight to pleasing a crowd, but he too treads cautiously against the Portuguese through fear of walking straight into one of his traps.
So this might boil down to a moment of individual brilliance rather than a period of sustained pressure and when you cast aside the usual fluidity of Liverpool's front three, it's hard not to conclude that United pose the greater variety of threats and could easily edge a tight encounter from the bench.
In terms of combination play, Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino link up better than any trio in the United ranks you care to name. But in the realm of reductive tactics, the hosts can conjure up a decisive action from any one of six or seven forward players. And that might well be the difference.
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Manchester United to beat Liverpool (draw no bet) at 19/20
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