The Champions League quarter-final tie with Liverpool was always destined to have a major bearing on how Pep Guardiola approached this 176th Manchester derby, but few expected the Sky Blues would come into this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity on such a downer.
Clinching the title against arch-rivals United might be the sweetest of scenarios for the club’s die-hard supporters, but the Catalan can seemingly take it or leave it, especially when it comes at the risk of wiping out his already-feint hopes of progression against the Merseysiders on Tuesday night.
A crushing 3-0 defeat at Anfield leaves Guardiola staring at another fruitless season on the continent and he now faces a dilemma over whether to use this game as an emotional springboard for the return against Jurgen Klopp’s men or rotate as cold-hearted logic would dictate.
With such a quick turnaround either side, changes are surely inevitable; it’s merely a question of who and how many. However Guardiola chooses to shuffle his pack, punters should be aware that each little compromise will be met by a swell of belief and determination in the visiting camp.
Not for one moment would United entertain the suggestion that this derby might be different to any other. A weakened City side would be no defence against the jubilation and schadenfreude that would greet an away win. Indeed, having been forced to contemplate the image of what City’s post-match celebrations might look like, any result that thwarts such a fate would be cause for rejoice.
So the priority at the outset will simply be to avoid defeat. United might start positively, looking to expose any emotional drain from Wednesday night, then retreat and let City have the ball in areas where the threat is limited, setting up the way they normally do against top-six opposition on the road. With that in mind, a bet on under 2.5 goals at odds-against is a confident bet.
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Nonetheless, stealing all three points should be very much part of the plan. If United settle into this, they will increasingly sense an opportunity to have a thoroughly enjoyable day at City’s expense and put a marker down for next season, posting a result that reduces the perception of a gulf between the two teams. In this respect, there’s a notable precedent.
On the same weekend five years ago, in Alex Ferguson’s final season, United went into the derby 15 points clear of City with eight games to play. The title race was done and dusted, a formality that would be sealed a fortnight later, but City went to Old Trafford eager to prove a point and emerged as deserved 2-1 winners. Now the roles are reversed.
United’s shock Champions League exit has put a real dampener on their season and one can only wonder whether their players will welcome this fixture more than normal, having been stewing on that bitter disappointment for the past three and a half weeks. Should that prove to be the case, then 18/5 isn’t a bad price about the away win.
If Mourinho’s tactics and subsequent reaction to the Sevilla defeat was a prime example of how he struggles to manage big-club expectations, where the underdog role has no place and there's no obvious enemy to rail against, this game is the polar opposite. It has all the ingredients he traditionally relishes.
Recommended bets:
Under 2.5 goals at 21/20
Man United to beat Man City at 18/5
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