When Michael Keane made his £30m move to Everton last summer, it was widely expected that Burnley would be left stranded as a result. The former Manchester United academy product was the Turf Moor poster boy as the Clarets defied the odds - and most shot data models - to avoid relegation with 40 points. Sourcing an adequate replacement would be a tall order.
The general assumption was that regression to the mean, compounded by Keane’s absence, would cost the Lancashire club six points minimum, that being the gap by which they beat the drop last time around. However, Keane went with Sean Dyche’s full blessing. The Burnley boss was totally relaxed about the situation and hindsight enables us to understand why.
As it turns out, the gap was already filled. After 18 months on the fringes, James Tarkowski was ready to become a mainstay and pick up where Keane left off, meaning Dyche had come good on two promises at the same time, thus reassuring the rest of his squad that he’s a man of his word. Do what’s required now and your rewards will materialise soon enough.
Burnley continue to defy 'expected goals' models - to the point that there’s now a widespread acceptance that it’s not completely by accident - and Tarkowski has been a revelation in that process. So much so, the debate surrounds whether his absence - first through suspension and recently injury - has been the main cause behind Burnley’s mid-season slump.
The overall standard has barely altered in the past two months, but the Clarets are now winless in 11 league matches. The fine margins from which they eked out 32 points in the first 18 games with Tarkowski involved have turned against them. Momentary lapses in concentration and isolated bad breaks are proving costly as a first clean sheet in 2018 eludes them.
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Last weekend, they were on course for a textbook 1-0 win over Southampton until Bobby Madley’s cruel intervention in the closing stages, when the referee inadvertently impeded Ashley Westwood in the build-up to Manolo Gabbiadini’s last-gasp equaliser. Prior to that, there was also a strong penalty appeal when Ashley Barnes was shoved in the box.
So let’s not dwell too much on the formbook. The Clarets have come through a testing period that included successive home games against Tottenham (0-3), Liverpool (1-2), Manchester United (0-1) and Manchester City (1-1), while Tarkowski’s hamstring has now mended and he’s reportedly available for selection again this weekend.
Meanwhile, speculation is already mounting about Sam Allardyce’s future at Everton after reports emerged this week that new owner Farhad Moshiri is almost certain to replace him in the summer, having already drawn up a shortlist of targets, with Paulo Fonseca, Marco Silva and Luis Enrique among the names being bandied about.
It might just be idle gossip but the enthusiasm with which the story has been picked up on Merseyside says plenty about the mood around Goodison. The Toffees have won just two of their last 11 games and there’s some debate over whether this is their most sterile period of attacking play in the Premier League era.
Allardyce, true to form, appears not to care one jot about those perceptions. Last weekend, they were beaten by a late Troy Deeney goal in a dreadful game at Watford where they registered just two shots on target. Since the initial flourish that yielded 13 points in early December, Big Sam's Everton tested the opposition goalkeeper roughly once every 43 minutes.
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Burnley to keep a clean sheet at 8/5
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