Were Spain right to sack Julen Lopetegui?

And there it is. The World Cup has its Black Swan moment, a sudden unexpected event that, on the face of it, feels like it changes everything. 

Spain’s decision to sack manager Julen Lopetegui on the eve of the tournament is as drastic as it is unprecedented. Lopetegui only signed a new contract three weeks ago, the offer of which recognised the impressive nature with which Spain have performed since he replaced Vicente del Bosque. 

For a while it looked like replicating the success he had with the Under-19s and Under-21s at senior level was a genuine possibility as Spain obliterated Italy in qualifying and then blew Argentina away in a friendly in March. 

In those games the team hit heights we haven’t seen since 2012. Spain were Spain again, lingering ominously in the shadow of Brazil, Germany and France as one of the principal contenders. It struck me as odd in the build-up to the World Cup that France, in particular, were generating more hype than Spain. On paper, it’s more than understandable. On the pitch, though, France have never played as well as Spain over the last two years. 

Lopetegui’s record of 16 wins and no defeats in 20 games probably should have inspired more fear than it did. What we now know is it definitely commanded the attention of Real Madrid. Appointing Lopetegui as Zidane’s successor makes a certain degree of sense. Madrid have spent the last couple of years hoovering up much of the best young talent in Spain. Lopetegui’s background in youth football and track record of transitioning kids from junior to senior level while achieving success at the same time should perhaps have made him a candidate from the start. 

Why he wasn’t presumably had something to do with the new deal he signed with the RFEF in May, not to mention other higher profile club managers resisting Madrid’s overtures. It turns out going back on your word, keeping the federation in the dark about your talks with Madrid and sharing your decision to join them once Spain’s tournament is over only “five minutes” before Madrid go public with an announcement, as Lopetegui did, is not acceptable behaviour. 

On the one hand, you feel a measure of sympathy for him. Imagine qualifying for the World Cup in style, flying to Russia confident of maybe winning the competition and knowing whatever happens there’ll be a job waiting for you at the Bernabeu when it's over. But you can't have your cake and eat it. Not like this anyway. 

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Lopetegui now won’t be coaching at the World Cup. As if following Zidane wasn’t already hard enough, and Madrid weren’t renowned as the most demanding club in the world, the potential backlash and hostility created by this does Lopetegui no favours and probably makes it harder for him to be a success at the White House next season. It was an epic miscalculation to say the least. The Madrid job, which no one lasts long in, and looks far from easy with Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale casting doubt on their futures, better be worth it. 

And what of the federation? Is this the right call? Would it not have been better for Luis Rubiales, the RFEF president, to park his principles and be pragmatic. The decision comes not only on the eve of the World Cup, but less than 48 hours from Spain’s trickiest group game against Portugal. Lose that and the sense of crisis will escalate even more.

That said, there is something noble in Rubiales’ stance. He is allowing his moral compass to guide him in defence of the honour of the national team. That honour was besmirched by the impression Lopetegui left as someone prepared to put his career ahead of his country.  

Whether it all blows up in his and Spain’s face remains to be seen. This is a major test of the squad’s unity. What must the non-Madrid players think of all this? Have the actions of Florentino Perez not compromised their World Cup bid? Might it open up fissures between the Madrid and Barcelona players?

The flip side, of course, is that it galvanises the team, forces players to take responsibility and focuses the mind on the task at hand. Italy’s World Cup wins in 1982 and 2006 are proof of how far a siege mentality can take a country. 

Both of those teams had managers though who knew how to judge the mood, man-manage and make the right adjustments. Can Fernando Hierro be expected to do that as he steps into the breach from his role as sporting director? It seems a tall order even if this Spain team is full of winners, leaders and has such a well-defined style of play. The proof will be on the pitch, starting Friday.