The World Cup hasn’t had the heart-warming narrative of a host nation exceeding all expectations for 16 years now, but the core ingredients might be there for Russia to emulate South Korea in 2002 by dumping a heavyweight out in the last 16. Needless to say, the 11 players out on the pitch are probably going to need a bit of help, but let’s keep an open mind on that score.
The mood has cooled on Stanislav Cherchesov’s men since they were brushed aside by Uruguay in their Group A decider last Monday. They were simply blown away by the South Americans, conceding twice in the opening 25 minutes before going down to 10 men, but there was also a much-needed and noticeable drop in intensity that might serve them well here.
For the first time at this event, Russia covered less distance than the opposition, dropping from 118 and 115 kilometres in the first two matches to just 95 kilometres against La Celeste. The red card picked up by Igor Smolnikov obviously had plenty to do with that but, even so, the average would have still been comfortably one kilometre less per outfield player.
So they could be much fresher coming into this game and ready to cover the ground necessary to close the spaces available to the Spanish as they probe with their intricate passing game. And mentally, there’s no doubt that La Roja come into this clash on the back of a more taxing couple of weeks in a section that was riddled with tension from start to finish.
The 2010 winners started by going behind twice in a 3-3 draw with Portugal and finished by going behind twice in a 2-2 draw with Morocco, either side of edging past Iran 1-0 in rather unconvincing fashion. It was a strong group, much stronger than many would have anticipated, but there was enough uncertainty in the process to believe they might be unsure of themselves.
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The overall performance against Morocco was downright jittery and David de Gea, regarded by many as the best goalkeeper in the world coming into the tournament, has saved only one of his six shots on target faced, playing behind a central defensive partnership that famously doesn’t get on. These are mild concerns but it’s not what you want to hear about an 8/13 shot.
The dismissal of Julen Lopetegui on the eve of the tournament was obviously an unwanted distraction that has potentially unsettled the players and his replacement Fernando Hierro might be statesmanlike in his demeanour away from the pitch, but on the touchline he looks edgy and isn’t cutting the figure of a man who has everything under control.
When Lopetegui was axed, Spain would have had most of their tactical and conditioning preparations for the next three games already taken care of but we’re now approaching the point where the pre-tournament research is less relevant and more judgement calls have to be made on the fly. Increasingly, this is going to be about what Hierro does rather than what Lopetegui did.
So there’s enough in all of this to get with Russia, whether that’s to win the game at 6/1, to qualify at 3/1 or to avoid defeat on the double chance at 7/5. Better still, you can get odds against on Russia +0.75 on the Asian handicap. Even at the peak of their powers in 2010, Spain didn't win a single knockout game by two clear goals.
Recommended bet:
Russia +0.75 on the Asian handicap at 23/20
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