Performance data is the be-all and end-all in betting markets nowadays, and Fulham must hope the underlying numbers stack up at Wembley this weekend because the less-quantifiable variables that often make-up the play-off final narrative mostly favour Aston Villa.
Fulham might have finished the regular season in title-winning form, posting the kind of shot data you’d expect from a team that belongs in the top half of the Premier League, but they come up against a streetwise Villa side who thrive in big atmospheres and increasingly look too good for the division.
Steve Bruce's men aren't as fluid or relentless, but their expected goals ratio is comparable and that's alongside a distinct impression that there's more in the locker. Now they might be peaking at just the right time. There was certainly plenty to like about the controlled manner with which they dispatched of Middlesbrough in the semi-finals.
The Villans went ahead inside 15 minutes at the Riverside and, in the 184 minutes that followed (including stoppages), they never really looked like relinquishing that lead. The only close shave they had to endure was a Stewart Downing free-kick that clattered the crossbar in the dying embers of the second leg.
Many were quick to accuse Tony Pulis of being overly cautious with his tactics in the aftermath, but it was a cagey cat-and-mouse battle between two masculine teams and we should respect the fact that Boro hadn't fired a blank in their previous 14 matches, scoring 27 goals in the process. Restricting them to just two shots on target across the two legs was no mean feat.
Fulham dispelled some concerns about their mentality by staying positive and sticking to their principles when a goal down against a well-drilled Derby side. The Cottagers were good value for their 2-0 success in the return at Craven Cottage, but it's also worth pointing out they don't get the luxury of 111 minutes to level up if they fall behind here.
Win cash prizes for free with our competition!
| User |
Total tips |
Profit | 1 | Yield | Expected prize |
twr007
|
26
|
285776 | 2 |
+49.85%
|
500 EUR |
|
ElvisBarca
|
40
|
272577 | 3 |
+22.25%
|
250 EUR |
BateCrew
|
83
|
256199 | 4 |
+23.41%
|
125 EUR |
|
hessyboi999
|
35
|
181839 | 5 |
+18.72%
|
75 EUR |
stasibet
|
132
|
177265 | 6 |
+9.60%
|
50 EUR |
Don't miss out - join our May Tipster Competition today
Psychologists will tell you that over-celebrating a stage success can put a ceiling on future performance and there was certainly a stark contrast in behaviour when the two teams booked their final place. This will be Fulham's first appearance at Wembley since 1975 and it was met with a wave of euphoria that some players struggled to keep at arm's length.
Match-winner Dennis Odoi was basking in the outpouring of jubilation for a good 15 minutes after the final whistle, while many others were in no hurry to leave the pitch. The following night, John Terry was conspicuous by his serious demeanour, making it his business to drag local boy Jack Grealish away from any potential overspill of emotion.
Villa boast an abundance of experience throughout the team. No fewer than 11 of the 14 players most likely to play some part on Saturday have turned out at Wembley before. Ten of them have appeared multiple times at the national stadium and nine have sampled both victory and defeat, making up a combined total of 59 individual visits.
Terry alone has stepped out at the new Wembley 31 times, including nine major semi-finals or finals with Chelsea, eight of which finished victorious. But even forgetting him, Villa have six players who have played in a combined eight play-off finals, with six of those nerve-shredding encounters in the past three years.
Fulham, on the other hand, have Stefan Johansen and Matt Targett. Johansen played in a 1-0 friendly loss for Norway against England back in September 2014, while Targett's last game for parent club Southampton was a 5-2 defeat by Tottenham in the Premier League five months ago.
Recommended bet:
Aston Villa to win promotion at 5/4
.png)
