Premier League relegation is proving a less than straightforward affair. With just a fortnight to go, there is plenty of uncertainty and no team has yet to officially depart.
West Brom will surely rue their brief yet toxic fling with Alan Pardew and remain close to death’s door. Their pulse has flickered while picking up eight points in four games under Darren Moore. It won’t be enough if they don’t win both their remaining games against Tottenham and Crystal Palace. If they manage that, the eventual transition from 99.9% certainty to go down to 100% will occur if either Swansea or Southampton win any of their last three matches, one of which features Saints travelling to Wales for the proverbial “six pointer”.
That Swansea versus Southampton game, and the way the end of the season is shaping up for the teams hovering around the trap door, really emphasises how much will ride on small margins from here on in. Take Huddersfield. Beating Watford 1-0 landed them on 35 points and looked like it might be decisive to their aspirations. However, Southampton’s 2-1 victory over Bournemouth has put them right back in the mix and the south coast side now reside only one win behind the Terriers and with a significantly better goal difference.
Can Southampton get a win - or more - out of their last three games? A trip to Everton next week is far from straightforward, and nor will be welcoming Manchester City to St Mary’s on the last day of the season, but nestled in between is that trip to Swansea. And getting to 35 points might be enough for anyone except Huddersfield. Their problem is a horrific schedule that may have become harder still by circumstance. A trip to Manchester City kicks things off, for which even in celebration mode, City should be able to stroll through. Another rock hard trip comes next, to Stamford Bridge, with any hope that Chelsea may have switched off by then surely discarded by Liverpool and Tottenham’s slight recent slowdown. Chelsea can still see the smallest chink of light into the top four, which may by then be brighter still if they can find a way past Liverpool in another Stamford Bridge fixture. Arsenal visit to finish Huddersfield’s season, in what would in any other circumstances be a dead rubber for the Gunners, but will now potentially carry the added emotional gravitas of being Arsene Wenger’s last game on English soil, and quite probably, his last Arsenal game entirely. There may well be a few tears shed on both sides that day.
Stoke can only get out of jail by doubling their win rate for 2018 within two games, and securing six points while hoping for misery elsewhere. The first game at home to Crystal Palace has a different vibe than it might have, with Palace’s 5-0 trouncing of Leicester seeing them safe. Roy Hodgson will do well to motivate his players ahead of this game, after guiding them away from their goalless and winless start, with the top half - remarkably - only a win or two away. Once more the Liberty Stadium may host a massive fixture with Stoke visiting on the last day, with any number of scenarios still in play.
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The truth behind all these multifaceted outcomes is that the bottom of the league this season has been weird. Usually, there are one or more teams that are obviously worse than the rest of the league, and they get relegated. This season, no team really fits that remit. West Brom and Southampton have scarcely been thrashable, and their issue hasn’t been too many defeats but rather too few wins.
For example, via expected goals last season, Hull and Sunderland were clearly the worst two sides in the league and they duly got relegated. Middlesbrough were only slightly better and they went down too. The year before, Aston Villa were terrible, while Newcastle and Norwich were easily in the mix to be next worst and in 2014-15, relegated QPR, Burnley and Hull were all rated as among the four worst teams in the league.
This season is different. Southampton project like a borderline top-half side and West Brom really shouldn’t be anywhere near the bottom either. Swansea are the one team that have perhaps been consistently under par all year, yet they're a win from safety. Only Stoke’s statistical profile matches that of a “usually” relegated team.
The likely explanation for all this lies in a similar realm to that which propelled Leicester to a title: these events may be unlikely, but they can happen. Contrary to received belief, a season of 38 games remains a small sample to truly determine team quality, and odd streaks and external factors can have a huge effect.
Both West Brom - particularly in relation to Alan Pardew - and Southampton now look to have reacted too late to their poor form to effect the change required to propel them the comfortable safety. Yet they will have had to balance that against a desire to understand that their teams did not project to be as bad as their returns.
Stick or twist? The wrong decision can cost millions of pounds in lost revenue and undermine a club’s entire stability and even the uncertainty of a relegation battle can affect planning. Within two weeks all answers will be found, and it’s quite likely that the post mortem at more than one club facing life in the Championship will start with a simple question: “How did that happen?”
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