The decline of West Brom this season was hard to foretell. Back in the summer, the bookmakers priced up their chances of relegation at around the 5/1 mark - unlikely but far from impossible. In seven Premier League seasons since their last promotion in 2009-10, they had scrolled through six permanent managers. However, results had mainly been consistent. They managed to accrue within a tight band of points - 43 to 49 - in all but one season, 2013-14 under Steve Clark and latterly Pepe Mel, where they limped to 36.
The reality of 2017-18 is that they are unlikely to get anywhere near that total. They will do well to even get to 32 points, the total they were relegated with in 2008-09, having been marooned on 20 since mid-January after seven consecutive defeats. Seven matches remain, but the season is all but over for the Baggies and 20th position - deemed a 25/1 shot pre-season - is almost certainly where they will finish.
How have they ended up here? This looks to be the absolute worst-case scenario based on the talent in their squad and the very bottom of any variance that surrounds their actual performance levels. A glance at expected goals doesn’t portray the team as anywhere near as bad as this. On the balance of their performance levels it would be quite reasonable to expect them to be among the glut of relegation candidates, which probably extends all the way up to Newcastle in 13th, but not seven points adrift of 19th and ten clear of safety.
The top-line assessment is obvious: they have won three games from 31, but it appears they have been unfortunate to have landed so many bad results. Normally a team so far behind the rest of the league will have been, to an extent, whipping boys, but for West Brom that hasn’t been the case. Of their 17 defeats, only seven have been by more than one goal. In tight games that have ended up drawn or with a goal advantage to either team, their record is 2-11-13. Tony Pulis’ record in such games of 2-5-3 was superior to Alan Pardew’s 0-4-7, and it’s easy to look back in hindsight and query this managerial transition.
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Pulis’ reign was characterised by poor results throughout 2017, but 10 games without a win concluding with four consecutive defeats was the kind of record only Arsène Wenger can hope to survive. Pardew felt a gamble; though experienced within the league, his résumé extends to long, poor runs of form for multiple clubs. That included overseeing a historically poor run of defeats at West Ham back in 2006-07, before failing to keep Charlton in the division in the same season, losing 15 of 21 games at the back end of 2013-14 for Newcastle and winning just one-sixth of his games in 2016 for Crystal Palace. Should further failure surprise?
In his defence, Pardew’s task was not helped by having to pick up the remnants of Pulis’ reign. The Welshman’s specific style of play and three summers of recruitment to implement it left West Brom overloaded with stronger, combative players, but a lack of finesse in an ageing squad. The summer signing of 20-year-old winger Oliver Burke bucked that trend, but he’s been unable to stake a claim under either manager, and the club now has a serious problem with regard the age of its squad.
This season, only Burke and teenage midfielders Rekeem Harper and Sam Field have played league football and are currently under the age of 27. Between them they have clocked fewer than 1000 minutes. While West Brom will inevitably cut loose some higher earning older players upon relegation, they severely lack a core of younger (and likely more affordable) players with whom they can rebuild in the Championship on a significantly reduced turnover.
There will likely be some good players retained, but the Baggies will have just come off the back of a bad season and are in decline. The prognosis is by no means at the level of Sunderland, insofar as they are unlikely to face back to back relegations, but returning West Brom to the Premier League will require huge upheaval and further investment.
It wasn’t meant to be this way, and Pardew has entirely failed to hit his remit of keeping the club in the Premier League. He is surely not the man to try and return them there either. West Brom’s story shows that no one except the big six is truly safe in this division. If you don’t get the breaks, the Championship beckons.
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