Chelsea’s title defence already looks decidedly under par. Three defeats and eight goals conceded is not title-winning form. But nor were their first eight games last season, when they started 5-1-2 and conceded nine.
Back then, though, the first two games of October featured the opening victories in their 13-game win streak - which was ultimately the bedrock of their title - rather than back-to-back defeats by the top and bottom teams in the league, as we have just witnessed. A three point difference year on year might not seem like much, even if allowing for the apparent trajectory being opposite. However, beyond this, Chelsea certainly aren’t projecting to be anything better than what we have so far seen, and Antonio Conte can’t perform the same magic trick twice: he doesn’t have a surprise switch to three centre-backs in his tactical locker this time.
Last season, Chelsea were taking around two-thirds of the shots in their games; this season, it’s just a shade over half. That’s a fairly huge difference. It breaks down as around twelve shots for and against in 2017/18 versus 15 for and eight against in 2016/17. Only one of these profiles looks like a team that can challenge for a title.
Has their schedule affected them? In eight games they have played away at Tottenham and welcomed Arsenal and Manchester City, so it has not been straightforward, but they have recorded a win, a draw and a loss in those matches. In losing to a demoralised Crystal Palace and a spirited Burnley, the team has shown what looks to be a new vulnerability. Their record against teams outside the big six last year was a phenomenal 25-2-1 (interestingly the reverse fixtures against Burnley and Palace feature in the draw and loss column), yet this time around they are already at 3-0-2.
The attack has faltered, at least in shooting volume, but where is the difference? Last season Diego Costa was the only player logging three-plus shots per game, and Alvaro Morata has so far added another half a shot per game on top of that en route to his team-high six goals. Beyond the main striker role, Pedro is also around the three shots per game mark, which is again about half a shot a game ahead of his full season rate from 2016/17. But he has missed around half the time played this season, while Eden Hazard, limited to a mere 200+ minutes, has only recorded three shots.
If we recall 2015/16, and the poor run Chelsea had in defending their last title, a quiet run from Hazard - the first in his career, and probably exacerbated by injury - was a crucial ingredient. His presence and form is imperative to power Chelsea’s best form, as 16 goals from 36 starts in 2016/17 amply showed.
Elsewhere, Willian has found himself starting regularly, but season to season his shot rate has dropped by a whole shot per game, and he hasn’t scored. Against Manchester City, Conte - perhaps wisely - set up about as defensive unit as he could. With just Hazard behind Morata and no obvious other attacking outlet, the team took four shots all evening and lost 1-0 in an entirely one-sided affair.
The defeats will have stung but even the way Chelsea have won matches has set off small alarm bells. The 2-1 victory against Tottenham saw the team create comparatively little. They scored with their only two shots on target, one a free-kick, and did not create frequent good quality chances. Ditto the Stoke game: they might have notched four, but it came from just seven shots and again the opposition keeper didn’t make a save. There is nothing sustainable about scoring every time you hit the target and, realistically, the fine finishing form of Morata is all that's keeping their attack afloat right now.
Defensive issues aren’t hard to find either. Last season, Chelsea only allowed more than league average shot volume (around 12 per game) in five games, all of which were against their top-four rivals. This season has already seen it happen four times, with Stoke and Palace adding to Tottenham and Manchester City. However we cut it, through eight games, this team just isn’t clicking as before.
With Morata unavailable and Danny Drinkwater also injured, of Chelsea’s summer signings only Tiemoué Bakayoko started in the Palace defeat, and it’s hard to say their transfer business improved the quality in the squad. So far the results and the performances that have contributed to them appear to reflect that 2017/18 model Chelsea is a lesser team than the 2016/17 brand. It’s far too soon to suggest they cannot rally and turn their season around, but it may well be that the battle for a top-four slot is their ceiling this time round; a title bid already looks remote.
Numbers via InStat
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