Fernando Santos’ men made it through to the last four with a penalty shootout win over Poland in the quarter-finals. It was a very close encounter that could have gone either way: Adam Nawalka’s men were far superior in the opening 20 minutes or so, but Portugal improved thereafter and probably just about deserved to progress on the balance of play across the entire match.
Having said that, it is certainly possible to argue that Portugal have been a little fortunate in both of their knockout stage clashes so far, with Croatia only beaten late on in extra time in the round of 16 after Santos’ side struggled to create clear-cut goalscoring opportunities for the majority of the match. Portugal’s performances in Group F were stronger than their results – a 1-1 draw with Iceland, a goalless draw with Austria and a 3-3 draw with Hungary – suggested, but the fact that they have still not won a single game within 90 minutes at this tournament is evidence that Portugal have not really dazzled in France up to now.
Wales, meanwhile, progressed to the semi-finals by overcoming Belgium 3-1 last Friday. Chris Coleman’s charges also started slowly and fell behind early on, but their response to that setback was tremendous: Wales deservedly got back on level terms before the end of the first period, before taking and then extending the lead in the second half as they caused their illustrious opponents numerous problems on the counter-attack. Playing as the underdogs certainly seems to suit the Welsh, who are always content to sit back and keep things tight before springing forward on the break when the ball changes hands.
Portugal will be unable to call upon the services of holding midfielder William Carvalho, who is suspended after picking up a second yellow card of the competition against Poland last time out. Porto’s Danilo will take his place in the engine room, and Portugal will probably otherwise be unchanged. Aaron Ramsey is another player who will miss out because of a ban, with Leicester City’s Andy King set to take his spot in the XI, with James Collins the favourite to come in for Ben Davies as one of three centre-backs in Wales’ backline.
It is understandable that almost every bookmaker has installed Portugal as favourites to triumph in Lyon on Wednesday, but there is much more value to be had in backing Wales to come out on top. The odds available on a 1-0 victory make that a tempting proposition, with Hal Robson-Kanu a good choice for the first scorer of the game. Another option would be a wager on the match not being decided within 90 minutes, while under 2.5 goals to be scored in total is another bet that makes sense given that both sides have looked reasonably solid defensively in the knockout rounds of the competition.
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