Adam Nawalka's charges progressed to the last eight by overcoming Switzerland in a penalty shoot-out after the two teams remained tied at 1-1 following 120 minutes of football. Grzegorz Krychowiak's winning spot-kick booked Poland's place in the quarters for the first time in European Championship history, and they will be quietly confident of going even further given the strength of their performances up to now.
Indeed, the Poles remain unbeaten after four matches and were the better team when they faced Germany in Group C, while the fact they have conceded only one goal so far is evidence of their solidity at the back. Robert Lewandowski's recent displays are cause for concern - the Bayern Munich striker has still not found the back of the net this summer, while he has also had little impact in general play - but in Arek Milik, Kamil Grosicki and Jakub Blaszczykowski Poland have in-form attacking players who are capable of causing opponents problems, particularly when they break forward at speed.
Portugal left it late before landing a knockout blow to Croatia in their round of 16 encounter, with Ricardo Quarema's match-winning strike coming with just three minutes left on the clock in the second period of extra time. In many ways they were a little fortunate to defeat a Croatia outfit who - albeit marginally - played the better football on the night, but Fernando Santos' side certainly deserved more than just three points from their Group F matches based on their performances against Iceland, Austria and Hungary. The Euro 2004 runners-up have played some slick stuff at times, with young players such as Joao Mario, Andre Gomes, Renato Sanches and Raphael Guerreiro coming to the fore, while in Cristiano Ronaldo they also possess the standout individual star in the competition.
Portugal are likely to control possession at the Stade Velodrome on Thursday night, with Poland set to stand off and focus on transitioning quickly from defence to attack once the ball has changed hands. The pace of Grosicki and Blaszczykowski will be essential to Nawalka's game plan, with the two wide men capable of relieving pressure by dragging their team up the pitch with direct runs forward, and Milik and Lewandowski will have to ensure they make the most of any chances that come their way. Portugal, meanwhile, will probably focus their attacking efforts on creating good opportunities for Ronaldo, who was pretty ineffectual against Croatia last time out.
The first quarter-final of the week is arguably the toughest to call, and it would not be at all surprising to see the match go to extra time and perhaps even all the way to penalties. On balance, though - and taking value into account - it is probably worth backing Poland to triumph by a narrow margin, with under 2.5 goals to be scored in total another bet that is worth considering.
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