Joachim Low's side progressed to the last four by the narrowest of margins, a 6-5 penalty shootout triumph securing their passage to the next round at the expense of Italy on Saturday night. It was probably a fair outcome based on the game as a whole - the scores were tied at 1-1 after 120 minutes of football - with the two teams cancelling one another out in the first half before Germany began to exert their dominance after the interval.
It was interesting to see Low change his side's formation from 4-2-3-1 to 3-5-2, a switch that meant Germany matched up with Italy across the field. It was a brave move, particularly as a similar one had backfired against the same opposition in the semi-finals of the European Championship in Poland and Ukraine four years ago, but it certainly worked this time, with Germany successfully nullifying the Azzurri's threat and making it difficult for them to play out from the back. It is more than likely that Low will employ a 4-2-3-1 configuration again on Thursday, but his tinkering at the weekend was evidence of the 56-year-old's tactical boldness.
France's last eight tie was altogether more straightforward, with Didier Deschamps' charges comfortably seeing off surprise package Iceland 5-2. Their performance at the Stade de France on Sunday was by some distance their strongest of the competition up to now, with much of the hosts' combination play in the final third a joy to watch. There are still concerns at the back, however, with Iceland scoring twice in the second half and causing France problems from set-pieces throughout, and Germany will probably fancy their chances of getting at this French backline.
Adil Rami and N'Golo Kante are available for selection again after missing the Iceland match through suspension, and it will be interesting to see whether the duo return to the starting line-up. If Kante is included it will probably be in place of Moussa Sissoko, which would mean shifting Antoine Griezmann back out wide; the Atletico Madrid man starred in a more central role at the weekend, though, so it would be something of a gamble to move him back out to the flank.
This is a very difficult match to call, with Germany and France probably the two strongest teams left in the competition. On balance, though, it is probably worth betting on Low’s men to record the narrowest of victories, perhaps by a single-goal margin or even in extra time. The Germans are more of a complete side than France and have looked far more assured defensively, which could be enough to get them over the line and into the final. A 2-1 triumph looks to be the best option in terms of the correct scoreline market, with Thomas Muller worth backing to end his goal drought and finally score at a European Championship for the first time in his career.
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