Juan Carlos Osorio’s men drew 2-2 with European champions Portugal in their opening encounter, when Hector Moreno flicked a header home in second-half stoppage time to earn his team a point. It was no less than the Mexicans deserved after an encouraging display against one of the favourites to lift the trophy this summer, but there is still plenty of work to be done if they are to qualify for the knockout phase of the tournament. They will nevertheless be in a positive mood heading into this week’s meeting at the Kazan Arena, with Mexico widely fancied to come out on top.
New Zealand were defeated in their first match on Saturday, when host nation Russia ran out 2-0 winners in Saint Petersburg. It was a disappointing, if not thoroughly unexpected, outcome for the 2016 OFC Nations Cup champions, who were considered rank outsiders heading into the competition. Anthony Hudson’s side probably did not expect to progress beyond the group stage, though, so they will not be too disheartened by Saturday’s setback against Stanislav Cherchesov's crew.
Mexico are likely to keep faith with the 4-3-3 formation they employed in the draw with Portugal, with El Tri set to dominate possession and spend large chunks of the match in the opposition’s half of the field. A front three of Carlos Vela, Raul Jimenez and Javier Hernandez provides a fine blend of trickery, physicality and finishing ability, while the midfield trio of Hector Herrera, Jonathan dos Santos and Andres Guardado will cause problems in the centre of the park. If things are not going to plan, players such as Hirving Lozano, Giovani dos Santos and Oscar Peralta have the ability to make an impact off the substitutes’ bench.
New Zealand, as expected, lined up in a 5-3-2 configuration in their first game of the tournament, with the approach likely to be similar here: the All Whites will sit deep, cede control of the ball and seek to spring forward at speed when possession changes hands. Central defenders Andrew Durante, Tommy Smith and Michael Boxall will have to stand up to the challenge posed by the Mexican frontline, while strike duo Kosta Barbarouses and Chris Wood will have to make the most of any opportunities that come their way in and around the penalty area.
It is difficult to look past a rather comfortable Mexico victory in this one, with New Zealand likely to once again struggle against superior opposition. There is little value to be had in simply backing the favourites to emerge victorious, though, so it would be wise to look elsewhere when making a selection. The correct scoreline market is one option – a 3-0 Mexican triumph is certainly worth considering – but the best bet could be a win to nil for Osorio’s charges. As far as an anytime goalscorer is concerned, meanwhile, Hernandez would be an astute choice.
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