The Champions League knockout stage brought out the worst in Jose Mourinho. Not content with battening down the hatches to take a 0-0 from the Sanchez Pizjuan, the Portuguese resorted to an equally risk-averse approach in the return leg at Old Trafford - despite all the evidence to suggest Sevilla were flaky opposition, there for the taking.
United fans seem prepared to give their manager the benefit of the doubt for the sake of long-term stability, but the aghast response of the mainstream media was entirely predictable and fully justified. The Red Devils mustered just four shots on target across the two legs, a total that more than half of La Liga have bettered inside 90 minutes this term.
From a mental perspective, the tactics were suicidal. The only logical explanation, perhaps, is that Mourinho was playing a long game and steeling his players in a particular mindset that would be suitable for stiffer tests to come in the later rounds. Maybe the idea was to generate belief through clean sheets and resistance to psychological tension.
Either way, we should expect a reaction of some sort in this FA Cup quarter-final. The prospect of United going out of two knockout competitions on home soil in the space of five days would be tough for supporters to take in their stride. But those who expect that reaction to be full throttle attacking football, winning by a resounding margin might well be disappointed.
The late Saturday night kick-off should guarantee an intoxicated home crowd ready to voice their defiance against anyone and everyone, and that in turn ought to fuel a purposeful start. But ultimately, the pattern of this game might well be determined by the competition rules offering the prospect of extra time and penalties on the night.
Brighton appear to be making the journey north with a shoot-out at the forefront of their thinking. The idea of taking this to penalties has been mentioned repeatedly by Chris Hughton and his players to the media this week, almost as though the prospect is more inviting than a replay at the Amex would have been in the earlier rounds.
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It's even reached the level where Hughton is talking about his choice of keeper being influenced by the ability to thwart opponents from 12 yards. Mathew Ryan has played every minute of the Premier League campaign so far but Tim Krul has deputised in knockout competition, so it will be interesting to see how far Hughton's promise to go full strength will stretch.
Krul, ironically, was the man who Louis van Gaal thrust into the spotlight as a late substitute for the Netherlands in a World Cup quarter-final against Costa Rica four years ago, the former Newcastle stopper then saving twice in the shoot-out to take the Oranje through. So that's always an option, although Hughton seems a little too conservative for such antics.
Odds of 9/2 on the draw imply that that stalemate is somewhat unlikely, which is understandable when you consider Albion haven't scored a single goal in seven away trips (six defeats) to teams currently above them in the table. But there's decent value in the 11/10 about the game producing under 2.5 goals.
This bet has landed in 15 out of Brighton's 17 away games (all competitions) and any breakthrough for United will calm their nerves but wouldn't necessarily lead to a cascade of goalmouth action. Indeed, it could create a strange impasse whereby both teams remain relatively cautious and protective - in Brighton's case, to stay in the game for one big roll of the dice late on.
Recommended bet:
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 11/10
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