Life in the Premier League is becoming a breeze for Brighton, at least if their performance data since the last international break is anything to go by. The Seagulls picked up eight points from matches against Everton (1-1), West Ham (3-0), Southampton (1-1) and Swansea (1-0), and were full value for it. Without a Wayne Rooney stoppage-time penalty, it could have been more.
However, their recent standards haven’t been fully recognised by the market yet because of a stigma that comes attached to newly-promoted teams, whereby they are seemingly presumed guilty of naivety until proven innocent. There’s no substitute for Premier League experience, so the theory goes. Even the strongest teams that emerge from the Championship can be found wanting.
When you study the points totals or performance data of promoted teams in years gone by - which most ratings models do - there’s no obvious rhyme or reason to why some teams flourish at the higher level and others fail. For many, the temptation to put that wild variance down to randomness is strong, but there’s an argument to say long-term progression and continuity are major factors.
In that respect, Brighton provide a fascinating case study, comparable to Swansea in 2011 and Leicester in 2014. Their rise to the top flight is no flash in the pan; it has been several years in the making, an institutional success that began in the obscurity of League One rather than the triumph of one particular manager and a sudden influx of talented players.
Some would dispute the notion of Leicester as a club that set out a 'five-year plan’ under Milan Mandaric and there’s no denying that their long-term prospects improved immeasurably with the King Power takeover in 2010. But the fact remains the Foxes took stock in the third tier and then made incremental steps over a six-year period rather than one giant leap.
We’ll resist the temptation to lump their unforeseeable title success into the rationale for backing Brighton here, save to say that Leicester have achieved points totals of 41, 81 and 44 in their first three seasons back at this level, while Swansea recorded 47, 46 and 42 in their first three campaigns. A comfortable mid-40s total could be well within Albion’s reach.
It’s an assessment only strengthened by a recent upsurge in creativity from Chris Hughton’s men. The former Norwich boss has been typecast as a limited tactician at this level, stemming from his own learning curve at Carrow Road, but evidence is emerging to suggest this particular bunch of players are beginning to thrive within the boundaries of his safety-first approach.
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In the first seven matches, Brighton accumulated an overall Expected Goals (xG) output of 3.54, an average of 0.51 goals per game. In the last four, their attacking xG has totalled 5.95, an average of 1.49 goals per game. At the same time, they’ve also reduced their defensive xG average from 1.52 to 0.95 goals. In short, they’ve trebled their attacking output, while cutting their defensive vulnerability by more than 50 per cent.
The standard of opposition obviously plays a part but, even when you remove the 2-0 defeats by Manchester City and Arsenal, their xG ratio (share of goalscoring opportunities) has risen from under 33 per cent to above 61 per cent. The samples are tiny but it’s nonetheless tempting to believe that something has clicked.
If mid-table prosperity is the long-term prognosis, then Stoke are by no means an opponent to be feared. The Potters were smash winners in their last away game at Watford, but they picked up only ten points from 16 away matches against non-relegated teams last season - and three of those came in a dead-rubber at Southampton on the final day.
The triumph at Vicarage Road was a timely one for Mark Hughes, just when the local media were beginning to ask questions about his future at the Bet365 Stadium and the pressure was beginning to mount. But the edge that might have created among a playing staff who no doubt welcome his pampering man-management approach has probably subsided for the time being.
The Potters have players capable of turning matches with moments of quality, but they don’t play games on their own terms often enough to believe they represent value at odds-on with a +0.25 start on the Asian handicap. Indeed, lately there’s been an over-reliance on 'Plan B’, which effectively means lumping the ball up to 36-year-old substitute Peter Crouch.
Recommended bet:
Brighton to beat Stoke at 2.40
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