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Betting preview: Bournemouth - Chelsea

Antonio Conte swerved a full-blown crisis last weekend, as Chelsea fought back from 2-1 down to take the spoils in a rousing final 20 minutes against Watford - but it doesn’t change the fact they were second-best for three-quarters of the game. Things aren’t right at Stamford Bridge and any reprieve might only be brief. 

The game against the Hornets was one settled by substitutions - ironic, given Conte's continual protestations about his lack of resources - but the late introductions of Willian and two-goal hero Michy Batshuayi, not to mention the withdrawal of Troy Deeney, should have been academic, Richarlison having earlier squandered two golden chances to put the game to bed.

There was no rhyme or reason to the dramatic turnaround; it wasn’t the result of any tactical tweak. The remaining cards in a loaded deck simply turned in Conte’s favour and the same questions about balance and morale remain. Chelsea are malfunctioning and it could once again lead to an abundance of goalmouth action at the Vitaly Stadium this Saturday evening.

Bournemouth haven’t had the start to the campaign they would have liked either, but the Cherries are cut from a different cloth than your average Premier League also-ran. They are unashamedly driven by the process rather than the outcome. They want possession of the ball and usually take the game to the opposition, regardless of who it is.

It’s an approach for which they are too readily criticised whenever a disappointing sequence of results stretches beyond a month or so, into the realm of five or six matches. Then, the bigger picture suddenly counts for little as everyone forgets the fact that they have improved their final league position for seven consecutive seasons under Eddie Howe.

The pundits harp on about a lack of pragmatism, picking the bones out of their performances by illustrating passages of play where the shape is wrong or the defending could be better. Then, of course, those same criticisms are churned out once more in a before-and-after context when form is recaptured, the accusers egged on by confirmation bias and the illusion of validity.

The simple truth is barely anything changes at Bournemouth - only the mood within the camp. Their football is expansive and instinctive, so it looks sloppy when they get it wrong. When confidence dips, bad habits creep in, giving the naysayers their ammunition. When buoyancy returns, the Cherries do everything off the cuff and those creases effortlessly iron themselves out.

We haven’t seen Bournemouth at full swagger at all this season but the optimists might only be encouraged by that, believing a purple patch is overdue. It’s worth remembering that they were third from bottom with eight points from 12 matches two seasons ago, at which point they posted back-to-back wins over Chelsea and Manchester United and never looked back.

Last weekend, the Dorset club were 2-1 winners at Stoke, a result that Howe put down to their character. Now the pressure has subsided a little, he hopes creativity and freedom of expression will follow. If it does, then odds of 9/2 or bigger about the home win are perfectly reasonable and carry more appeal than any start on the handicap.

By recent standards, Chelsea’s title defence has been positively mediocre. They now trail Manchester City by nine points but have five more than they had under Jose Mourinho two seasons ago, and five more than Leicester last term. However, there’s still time for the Conte era to unravel completely and no shortage of whispers coming out of Cobham to support the idea.

The players are reportedly disgruntled at how punishing their training regime has been, whereas Conte insists the intensity hasn’t altered from last season while also taking the opportunity to express his own frustration that the team are training "70 per cent less" due to their Champions League commitments. 

And you suspect the word 'intense' can be applied in both the physical and emotional sense. In Myers-Briggs terms, Introverted Feeling is Conte’s dominant cognitive function and the same strength of personality that enabled him to get under the skin of his players and push their buttons so quickly 12 months ago might soon be considered the most likely cause of his downfall.

Recommended bet:

Bournemouth to beat Chelsea at 9/2

England - Premier League Bournemouth vs Chelsea 28 October, 16:30 GMT 0

  • 6.200
    Home
  • 4.400
    Draw
  • 1.581
    Away
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