The race for the top four in the Premier League once again looks set to be contested by six teams. Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham were the dominant forces in 2016/17, and should be once more.
The sextet finished between eight and 32 points ahead of the best of the rest, Everton, and none lost more than nine games all year. Their dominance is easily explainable once you factor in financial power, but rarely do all the big sides get their act together at the same time, as they did last time out.
A key factor in Chelsea’s title triumph and Liverpool’s fourth-place finish was the duo's lack of European football; they will have no such assistance in 2017/18. Each of the six sides will be involved in continental competition, with Arsenal set to sample the unfamiliar environment of the Europa League.
Below is an analysis of three of the big six sides (part two will be published later this week).
Manchester City
Last season: 3rd
Odds: ~7/4
The abiding memories of Pep Guardiola’s first season in English football surround defence. From John Stones’ blank expressions after his errors were punished to Claudio Bravo’s mid-winter kryptonite relationship with the ball, City’s failings at the back did as much as anything to prevent them from contending for the title deep into the campaign.
Spotting this vulnerability, though perhaps a few years late, the full-back area has been extensively retooled and, in Ederson, a significantly younger goalkeeper has been recruited. There are still question marks over whether an ageing Yaya Touré and injury-prone İlkay Gündoğan represents enough depth in the centre of midfield, but City's attack remains lethal and enviable.
Kevin De Bruyne quietly had one of the great creative seasons in recent Premier League history last term. His 18 assists doubled his previous year’s tally, and with David Silva still poking and prodding around the final third and a choice of Sergio Agüero or the exciting Gabriel Jesus up front, City don't want for talent. Add in Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sané, both at the right end of the age curve to improve, and you have pace from wide to complement the smarts inside.
A small boost in output - plus a few more saves - should be enough to put City right in the mix. Another trophyless season won't be good enough.
Chelsea
Last season: 1st
Odds: ~7/2
Antonio Conte continued his impressive run of league titles, with his debut Premier League season backing up the three championships he won at Juventus. To the surprise of nobody, the bedrock for the Blues' success was defence, to the extent that even the extravagantly talented Cesc Fàbregas was relegated to a back-up role for large parts of the season.
With Champions League participation bringing a heavier schedule, the title may not be secured so easily this time around, but Conte has been quick to add to his squad. Álvaro Morata,Tiemoué Bakayoko and Antonio Rüdiger have all arrived and continue what appears to be a recent club policy of signing players at the right point in the age curve.
Chelsea may get criticism for the army of players they routinely loan out across the globe, but recent recruitment has generally been sound. Despite criticism over Michy Batshuayi’s lack of minutes last season, the other three new boys - David Luiz, N'Golo Kanté and Marcos Alonso - all quickly became core members of the title-winning team.
With Nemanja Matić moving on and Costa on the way out, Conte continues to build the side in his own image. There are some concerns about depth, but Eden Hazard remains one of the league’s most potent attackers and Pedro will be hoping to match the great form he produced in his second season in England.
Metrics suggested Chelsea got a boost in attack last year, which might not recur to the same extent, but their defensive numbers were close to the best in the league. Any team that finishes ahead of them will probably find themselves with a trophy. Conte hit a peak for expectation last season; this time there's more to do.
Manchester United
Last season: 6th
Odds: ~7/2
Jose Mourinho’s last two seasons in English football don't make for pretty reading: 16th place when he was sacked by Chelsea in December 2015, and a sixth-place finish last term. This is hugely different to everything that came before, and while a Europa League and League Cup (and er, Community Shield) might keep the aura of success glowing for now, a huge transfer spend and a demanding fan base will expect a title challenge in 2017/18.
Like Chelsea - and as is typical of Mourinho sides - United's defence was their star turn last season, with Zlatan Ibrahimović having a solid but slightly strange run of form in front of goal. The Swede scored plenty but was oddly non-lethal from the centre of goal; he failed to score with his feet from within the width of the six-yard box and the depth of the penalty spot. Step forward the reliable Romelu Lukaku, who must be rubbing his hands at the chance to lead the line for a genuine title contender after scoring goals for fun at Everton.
Mourinho’s second season back at Chelsea saw him win the league, but we’re beyond the point where he'll be able to do so while continuing to play for a 0-0 in any game he doesn't like the look of. Chelsea won 30 matches last season, and while it’s unlikely any team will do that again, the time for stalemates has passed.
Part two of this Premier League preview will be published later this week.
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