The 10-game mark in the Premier League is often a useful point to look at macro trends around the league. The schedule has started to settle down a little, and usually the table has taken on a fairly predictable shape.
For the first time this season, the current top six are the big six. Beyond occasional blips in the next few weeks, it seems extremely unlikely that these powerful clubs will relinquish that position. We often hear complaints that the league is too predictable, but we should probably be content that the battle for the title and top four is a genuine six-horse race these days, rather than a mega-club or two lording it over their underlings.
That said, Manchester City’s performances so far this season offer genuine promise that they could join the ranks of the mega-clubs; they already have the wealth, but a slightly fortunate run to the Champions League semi-finals in 2015/16 aside, they’ve never quite translated domestic form onto the bigger stage. That seems more feasible this season, primarily because of their electric early performances, but also because the squad looks to have sufficient depth to cope with more than one competition. After all, this is a team that has won two titles this decade: the primary reason to recruit Pep Guardiola was with a view to transcending to a higher level, at least football-wise.
A couple of weeks back, there was a neat stat uncovered that noted how City had scored more goals through eight games than any team since Everton in 1894/95. Here at 10 games, that stat has not recurred - and it’s thanks to Man City themselves.
Back in 2011/12, City started their campaign in a very similar fashion to this, recording nine wins and a draw. That was the year they added Sergio Agüero and Samir Nasri to an already formidable attack and they duly scored 36 goals in their first 10 games, which compares favourably to the 35 they have notched this term. That team went on to win the title, famously via Agüero's late goal against QPR, and the only other team since the turn of the century to start with nine wins and a draw - Chelsea’s 2005/06 side - did the same.
With an overload of fixtures across the winter months (within 37 days ending on the 1st January, every club plays a ridiculous 10 Premier League fixtures) it seems unlikely that any team could keep up this pace long-term. For now though, City are at the high end of nearly every statistical measure: everything related to shots and goals, expected or otherwise.
Elsewhere, if we scratch beneath the surface, we find the schedule has been driving narratives. Take West Brom. After five games, the team and manager Tony Pulis were gaining some praise for a strong start to the season. Home games against Bournemouth, Stoke and West Ham and trips to Burnley and Brighton had generated few goals but a solid eight points from their 2-2-1 record.
Yet, here we are five games later and a more difficult schedule has yielded significantly worse results. Defeats at Southampton and Arsenal and by Man City weren’t too hard to fathom, while a point at Leicester was well earned. However, add in a 2-2 draw against Watford and we find they have amassed just 10 points with a 2-4-4 record and no league win since August 19. Pulis praise has eased off - at least for now.
One point per game usually puts a team right in the relegation mix, but we have seen the Pulis playbook too many times to really believe that's how it will end up. His teams never take many shots in games, but they often pepper the six-yard box looking for high value opportunities and have a knack of finding results just when they need them. The Welshman's record of landing teams on 40-something points is metronomic in its regularity.
The broader point is familiar, though; a short run of games can cloud our understanding of the true quality of a team, and it takes time for them to roughly find their true level. We see that at the top with the top six likely set in place, and we will see it at the bottom.
Prior to Burnley vs Newcastle this Monday night, the only non-big six team more than two wins clear of the relegation zone is Watford. There really isn’t much difference in quality between the teams in the bottom half of the table - 10 teams have just two or three wins after 10 games - and the relegation scrap this year could run fairly deep.
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