Week three in the Premier League has come and gone, and with the transfer window about to “slam shut”, any team that has just endured a poor result is now being urged to spend, while recent victors appear content with their lot. Such is narrative. A last-minute goal in one direction or the other can help there too.
This weekend saw Manchester City exonerate themselves from criticism thanks to Raheem Sterling’s odd ballooned finish to secure a win down in sunny Bournemouth. The next day at Wembley, a moment of indecision from Kieran Trippier allowed a lively Chris Wood to not just steal in and score, but also place Trippier’s entire first-team Tottenham future under scrutiny and ensure Daniel Levy’s transfer brinkmanship was once more criticised. If only Tottenham had scored just one more of the 25-plus shots they took, or held off Burnley’s spirited late rally, perhaps this storyline would have had no need to write itself.
Onto the stats. Behind the vague chaos of early-season results, after three games we can see some simple truths emerging. It’s still too early to apply heavy meaning, but when Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham are all in the top five for shots for and against, it is clear that they are broadly continuing what we saw last season.
No Chelsea? Well, their attack wasn’t entirely the star last season, and perhaps may not be again. They shot less frequently than their rivals in 2016/17, but often this was a result of a favourable game situation; an early goal and some pragmatism was a regular feature. Coasting through at 2-0 against a non-threatening Everton attack on Sunday felt like more of the same. Antonio Conte is shrewd enough to know when to stick rather than twist, and with the added complications of the Champions League this time around, that attitude may well help their bid for the title.
But what of Arsenal?
It’s hard to disentangle quite how Arsene Wenger imagined turning up at Anfield and entirely failing to recognise Liverpool’s game plan squared with trying to win the game, but it certainly felt familiar. Losing can happen to any team, but losing 4-0 to a direct rival having had zero shots on target and having allowed each goal to emerge from a turnover or counter-attack of sorts is a little negligent to say the least.
There was more too. Of all people, Jordan Henderson - a man hardly renowned for his pace - broke clear of Arsenal’s defence and spurned a great chance to make it 2-0, then later missed a follow-up to a Mohamed Salah shot that Petr Cech blocked into his path. Salah and Daniel Sturridge also generated chances in a similar fashion to add to the Reds' goals. Liverpool’s ability to break at pace and bear down on a disjointed Arsenal defence was so regular and efficient it became almost formulaic.
This wasn’t just a visual trick either; what took place at Anfield was unusual. InStat record types of attack, and their log for counter-attacks (read: fast attacks) found that 47% (9/19) of Liverpool’s had a “successful” outcome. No single game under Jurgen Klopp has featured such a high degree of success, and no Arsenal game going back that far has seen them as vulnerable. The Gunners' defence was simply too disjointed to interrupt Liverpool’s extremely speedy attacking unit, and repeatedly failed to stem the flow.
Arsenal now face Bournemouth, West Brom and Brighton at home, with a trip to Chelsea in between the first two. For once, their European schedule shouldn’t hinder them unnecessarily. Even an erratic Arsenal should be good enough to coast through a favourable Europa League group. However, the naysayers are once again gathering and little looks to have changed from last season. It all feels very familiar.
Elsewhere, we find two teams who haven’t scored in Brighton and Crystal Palace. Some context is required to work out if this is simply a bad start or a very bad start, as it might be for Frank de Boer, with reports of unrest in the changing room surfacing.
Brighton created nearly nothing at home to Manchester City and away at Leicester, which is broadly acceptable; City need no introduction and the Foxes have long been a decent side at the King Power Stadium. That they then faced a Watford team down to ten men for an hour and failed to significantly trouble Heurelho Gomes is more concerning. Two shots on target from unpromising positions isn’t enough, but as we discussed last week, it’s quite possible that Watford are a useful side this year, so perhaps easier tasks await. Their three September games are all potentially winnable too, with West Brom and Newcastle visiting the Amex and a South Coast derby at Bournemouth.
Palace can consider themselves marginally unfortunate to be goalless and pointless. They were steadily hammered - as many teams will be - 1-0 by Liverpool (out-shot by a ratio of over 5:1) but have ended up on the wrong end of close games against Huddersfield and Swansea.
The final scores may not have appeared close (3-0 and 2-0) but the balance of chances was not as significant, with both opposition teams limited to under 10 shots in total. If Palace keep doing that against rival teams, they won’t continue to lose. Whether De Boer is around long enough to find that out or is swiftly ejected remains to be seen. He certainly deserves at least a few more weeks at the helm before any decision about his future is made.
Numbers via Instat
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