For the longest time, Diego Costa has been assumed fundamental to Chelsea’s attacking life. Costa has the brawn and bulk to play as an isolated forward, has the bold temperament to compete with more physical centre-halves, and is also one of the most capable goalscorers in Europe. In addition, the partnerships he has formed with Antonio Conte’s attacking midfielders are integral to that offensive continuity and lie at the heart of the advanced combinations which Chelsea have been able to mine so successfully.
Alongside that evaluation of his worth has grown the reality that Costa is likely to leave Stamford Bridge in the summer. The Chinese Super League has one very obvious source of appeal, but another which is perhaps more subtle: there is a growing community of Brazilian players gathering in the competition and, although Costa is now a naturalised Spaniard, it offers almost a home away from home.
It seems inevitable. Where he will go and for how much remain up for debate, but the chances of him lining up for Conte beyond 2016/17 seem remote. But how can he be replaced?
Though the temptation must be to fill the gap with a forward of similar shape (Romelu Lukaku, for instance), there would seem to be value in at least considering a different direction. Chelsea are a muscular, mechanical side and Costa very much suits their aesthetic, but there is a case for saying that, at times, his relative clumsiness is restrictive. He scores goals, he helps set them up and he moves smartly enough without the ball to drag defenders out of place, but there is still something missing.
Conte has built a team which likes to control the middle of the pitch. Chelsea have been successful this season by pinning opponents in their own half and using their shape and quality to explore openings that develop around the perimeter of the penalty box. At times, they have shown themselves to be a fine counter-attacking force, too, but they are very much a front-foot team.
Interestingly, none of those strengths actually call for a Costa-type player. He has become very popular at Stamford Bridge – rightly so – and has been extremely successful there, but he is not the only type of forward who could play in such a system. Chelsea benefit greatly from having Costa in their side but, factoring in the relative worth of stylistically different players, they are not reliant on him being there.
Acknowledging that creates all sorts of interesting possibilities in the summer. It would admittedly be strange for a club who are about to win a domestic title to depart from a winning formula, but for the purposes of preparing the team for European competition it might be necessary. Consider some of the forwards who have thrived in the latter stages of this season’s Champions League: Paulo Dybala, Gonzalo Higuain, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann. Factor in all the other title-hoarders around the continent – Robert Lewandowski, the entire Barcelona forward line, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – and Costa, by comparison, seems a little archaic.
He is not an unskilled player by any means, but – of those mentioned – he could perhaps be considered the least adept at dealing with the rigid and deep defensive structures typically found in Europe. Within that group, he is comfortably the most old-fashioned centre-forward: the one without either the extra gear of subtlety or those additional few degrees of technique.
His statistics seem to bear that out: he has scored just two goals in 15 European appearances for Chelsea. He may have netted eight times in nine games during an extremely healthy 2013/14 for Atletico Madrid, but that season was an outlier in all sorts of ways and for all manner of other players, too – and it also does not disguise the fact that, while in England, he has never been the same player abroad as he has in the Premier League. It might also be the same problem which has prohibited his goalscoring at international level: he did not score at World Cup 2014 and was not selected for Euro 2016, while his five goals for Spain have come against Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Albania and Israel.
His summer departure is not incidental. To say otherwise would be to ignore the fine contribution he has made. However, his impending sale – and the revenue it will inevitably generate – creates an opportunity for Conte (and Michael Emenalo) to add a more layered forward to the top of their formation; a smaller, more nimble, more diverse frontman who is able to combine with the players behind effectively, but who is also a menace in all sorts of other ways. Someone who can do more.
Imagine, for instance, how potent Chelsea might be with a Gabriel Jesus-type leading their line – a player who drops into all sorts of attacking positions and who is, essentially, a hybrid of all the modern variations upon the traditional No.9 role. Alvaro Morata would be another example; Griezmann too. Think not just about what that individual player could bring, but what he might also provoke from those around him: mixing Pedro, Eden Hazard et al. with that kind of pivot could produce something incendiary.
The objective is not to identify potential targets, but rather to say that what Conte has constructed is more flexible than assumed – or, at least, that it could be if he was to add a flourish. If there is a criticism of Chelsea, churlish though it probably seems, it is that there is little variation to their play. They have been coached to the Premier League title, rather than adlibbing their way to it. They have won games by virtue of being more disciplined, making fewer mistakes and by chiselling repetitively at their opponent’s weaknesses. Chelsea are both the best team in the country and the least unpredictable. While there is nothing overtly wrong with that, it is evidently a formula which needs to be stirred if they are to challenge outside of England.
Opting for a like-for-like solution to the Costa problem is the low-risk path. But thinking beyond the current structure and past some of its minor limitations may be key if Chelsea are to successfully export themselves next term.
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